Simulation predicts Ontario electricity rates could spike to achieve net zero by 2035.

According to an electricity system simulation and economic analysis conducted by the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE), retail electricity rates in Ontario could more than double, in some scenarios, to achieve net zero for province’s electricity system by 2035.

Specifically, the engineering association’s study found that adding too much intermittent renewable generation to the grid, particularly photovoltaic with battery backup, would spike rates as much as 220 percent in todays dollars.

In contrast, the OSPE simulation predicts that adding nuclear generation, with pumped hydroelectric storage, would increase 2035 retail electricity costs by roughly 20% higher in todays dollars.

In total, OSPE’s analysis explored 10 supply mixes, including hydroelectric, nuclear, wind turbine, PV, storage, and renewable natural gas combustion turbines, matching the existing zero-emission installed capacity in 2021.

The analysis also added sufficient energy storage to meet North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reliability and resiliency standards, a requirement for power systems connected to the North American power grid. Ontario currently connects to power systems in Quebec, New York, Michigan, Minnesota and Manitoba.

The simulation found that eliminating RNG combustion turbines from the mix pushed projected electricity costs higher than 220% worst case scenario to achieve both net-zero emissions and the NERC reliability and resiliency standards.

The complete OSPE Electricity Supply Mix Study is available on the association’s website.
https://ospe.on.ca